Moved Topic -- A Game of Thrones.

[daughter_of_kings]

The question is, what would Tywin have done had Tyrion been born first and Jamie second?

That is a very good question. It leads to others (as all good questions do)...
Had Tyrion been born first, would there even have been a second child? Presuming Lady Lannister's death at Tyrion's birth, then Tywin would certainly have remarried, and then I think you're right that it's very likely that the birth of a healthy "proper" son would have been followed very shortly by Tyrion having a fatal accident/disease. On the other hand, presuming that his wife lived through the birth, what would Tywin's reaction have been to his firstborn being, in his eyes, malformed? Would he have even tried to have another son after that? Tywin would certainly have considered it expedient to find new breeding stock,as it were. Would he have divorced his wife (or whatever they call it in Westeros)? Would the law even allow him to do so? I don't remember if her family was ever mentioned, but would they have let Tywin set her aside? Or would an accident/illness have befallen her?

As always, you leave me with much to think about.

[DoctorGamgee]

I don't think Tywin would plot it out. Mostly because he was worried about House Lannister, and while women could be useful, they also didn't carry on the name (no Lannister sat the throne, Joffrey was a Baratheon), and as Jaime was not about to have a family line (well...other than Cersi's), that left only one other viable heir. And to be honest, I think that he had figured out that Joffrey and the others were Jamie's kids, which is why he was ready to sign Cersi up with a Tyrell just to separate them as well as get the family in order politically. And despite Tyrion's many shortcomings (pardon the pun), he did have his wits about him and knew how to do his duty to the realm and not be a complete moron. And I suspect, that had he been given a modicum of respect while growing up by his father and been cherished rather than hated, he would have been a great man.

For what it's worth.

[yaralindi]

Part of it boils down to cold, hard cash and part of it is power. Why do the Tyrells want Margaery to marry and become Queen so badly? The first is the power this brings to House Tyrell. Tyrell gets quite a number of government positions out of the deal not the least of which is a seat on the Small Council and that means they get to have a very large say in what happens inside the government. They will also get quite a number of contracts, all of which have a large return on investment. The Tyrells may be paying out a lot now but they expect that back 100 times over in the coming years.

House Lannister is no different. Tywin watched what happened following Robert taking the throne. He actively worked to ensure his daughter was made Queen, with all that goes with that. Now he has a grandson on the throne and that means even more power and even more money. From what we've learned so far, the gold mines House Lannister has been using for centuries have run dry; something I'm sure Tywin has seen coming for years. They need a replacement or in a few generations they could easily become less important than the Freys. That means the Lannisters have to retain as much control of the kingdom as possible to ensure they get the most power, influence, and contracts. Gold has to flow into Casterly Rock, not the other way round as it has in the past.

Now, who would Tywin see as the best shot of making that happen? Joffrey or Tommen? If he thought Joffrey was going to ruin his machinations at protecting House Lannister when the gold mines ran dry, would he hesitate to arrange for the boy's demise? There are a number of indications in the book that Tywin considered letting Joffrey die at the hand of the Starks. If he could have figured out a way to get Rob Stark to bend the knee to Tommen once Joffrey was dead, I don't think he would have hesitated.

As to Jaime not about to have a family, I think Tywin didn't believe that. I'm sure he was surprised when Robert pardoned Jamie and left him in the King's Guard. He probably giggled with glee when he found out Jamie had lost his sword hand, well giggling doesn't quite fit but you get the idea. That Jamie wanted no part in running House Lannister probably isn't even considered by Tywin. That he can twist Jamie to his will, as he does with Cersei and Tyrion fairly easily, is what he would be thinking. Making that happen might take a while, but as Hand of the King he has the time and the authority to make almost anything happen.

Should the worst have happened and Tywin could not have persuaded Jamie to settle down, marry, and run Casterly Rock that duty would have fallen to Tywin's brother Kevan, or one of his son's Lancel or Martyn, or to Tyrek a son of Tywin's other brother Tygett. It would not have been as satisfying as having one of his son's taking over the house, but it would have been better than being destroyed.

As to Tywin's wife, DoK, her name was Joanna Lannister. Her father was an unnamed brother of Tywin's father, Tytos Lannister. So they were cousins. (A Storm of Swords, Appendix)

[DoctorGamgee]

Yeah, but Tywin wouldn't have used poison. He would have found a more direct and manly way for the kid to die (like in battle) or via an assassin's attack. Poison is usually a weak person's attack.

[yaralindi]

Yeah, but Tywin wouldn't have used poison. He would have found a more direct and manly way for the kid to die (like in battle) or via an assassin's attack. Poison is usually a weak person's attack.

That does make sense, sort of. From what I read in the books and even from what I got in the series, Tywin is not too concerned for the manly arts - unless those aid his house, of course. He's a consummate politician or as they called it in Wheel of Time, Daes Dae'mar, the Game of Houses. I'm sure he urged Jamie on when he was younger, but when he saw that Jamie was more interested in learning to fight than in learning to protect the house, I'm guessing he made things a bit difficult.

From that perspective, Tywin used tools. Most of the time that was words. He was very proud of the fact that he used a couple of notes to House Frey to end the war with Rob Stark. That Lord Frey disregarded the hospitality rules probably didn't bother Tywin at all. Better that than let the war drag on costing endless sums of money and countless Lannister and their ally's lives. I don't think he would have been above using poison, especially if that poison could be made to look like a natural accident. Joffrey choking on his own pie would have been seen as an accident except for two things - Cersei immediately decided that Tyrion had done it and Tyrion looking so guilty dumping the wine on the floor out of Joffrey's cup. Those were things no one could have planned for.

[DoctorGamgee]

Yes, but with House Frye, he didn't have them poison him (which they could have done with a slow acting poison) but instead went for the direct approach, ensure he is dead and kill him off! And while there are rumors of him being guilty (which he is) the blood is on house Frye, not Lannister. and we see with Arya that there are potions that are subtle and effective and would have left both of them free from reproach. But Tywin is a man who likes power, force and coercion. Cerci would use poison (it is more often used by women than men) as sticking a knife into Eddard's predecessor would present challenges. If as the show says, Littlefinger would give it to the Erye nutjob woman instead of a dagger. But Littlefinger is a man of plot and intrigue who is not powerful on his own, but through his machinations, not intimidation like Tywin gets his goal.

[yaralindi]

I don't think Tywin cared how Lord Frey did the deed. He promised him position and gold for betraying Rob. Frey could have simply closed the bridge to Rob and his men and let Tywin trap them against the river. Frey was just horrid enough to want to actually witness the deed since Rob had backed out on a deal and made him look a fool for trusting him.

I'm certain Tywin likes power, but he's not The Mountain. There's a finesse about Tywin that says to me he will use whatever tool he has at hand to get what he wants. He and Littlefinger have a lot in common but I think Tywin is better at the Game of Houses than Littlefinger. Littlefinger is sneaky while Tywin glides. Littlefinger is plotting while Tywin is masterful. Both are subtle and like to act behind the scene, but Littlefinger wants to stay hidden all the time. I don't think Tywin wants to stay hidden all the time. He doesn't care if you know he had a hand in it so long as you can't prove anything because that lets him intimidate you more easily the next time.

Tywin certainly does use intimidation, but he's not Cersei. Both are intimidating but Tywin is intimidating because you don't know what he will do but you're certain it won't be pleasant while you know exactly what Cersei will do if you don't bend to her wishes.

Of course, we may be completely off base and Tommen did it. As he got older, he had to know that Joffrey would see him as a threat. He's meek and mild and no one would suspect quiet Tommen. Martin is just evil enough to have that in mind as well.

[daughter_of_kings]

Weellll... as long as we're talking "might be's", it might have been Oberyn Martell. He made it clear that he wants vengeance on Gregor Clegane for killing his sister, but he also made it clear that he knows who holds the Mountain's leash, and that he holds Tywin equally responsible for her death. Sure, he could kill Tywin, but Prince Oberyn might think it more fitting to make Tywin suffer. Oberyn is a warrior, and seems more straightforward than sneaky... not the type to use poison... but as Yar has pointed out, Martin is not averse to zigging when you expect him to zag.

[yaralindi]

Good points, DoK, but I don't think anyone is discounting Prince Oberyn. He just didn't have the opportunity. Getting close enough to Joffrey when Tywin and Cersei would have obviously been watching for him to do something would have been very difficult. He could have bribed one of the hired help, but I'm thinking Varys, Tywin, and Cersei would have been watching for that. Oberyn is known to have studied poison and Tywin even confronts him on it, if memory serves, after Joffrey dies. Just like Tyrion, however, it would just be too easy if it turns out Oberyn really did it; which is my objection to the Queen of Thorns (with Littlefinger as assistant) having done the deed. It might be true, but the obvious just seems to be the first thing discarded by Martin when it comes time to reveal Who Done It.

[DoctorGamgee]

But by that logic, then Varys would be the best choice, as he had access, his desire for a great ruler (which Joffrey wasn't) and being Loyal to the realm puts him squarely in the "done it" seat, as he had the knowledge, the ease of placement, and ability. And in the drink seems so much more obvious, as that was the last thing to pass his lips, where as putting it in a main dish served to all, with an antidote served to all at the king's table except the king, would make it a perfect choice.

[yaralindi]

But by that logic, then Varys would be the best choice,

Which is why he couldn't have done it. Varys would be too easy to pin it on.

[DoctorGamgee]

But by that logic, then Varys would be the best choice,

Which is why he couldn't have done it. Varys would be too easy to pin it on.

Which makes him the obvious choice because nobody would consider it probable. Hiding in plain sight... LOL!

[DoctorGamgee]

OK, So, I have restarted the series, and going back to book 1's first few chapters, I have noticed a couple of things that went over my head before (as I was trying to keep up with who people were and things like that).

Being as Yar is compelling me to think afar, one can't help but notice that the Direwolf killed by the stag is a girl. So if a Baratheon were to kill a female Stark (as the omen suggests), is that portending something to come to Catelyn in the future? (meaning the books yet read, as the Red wedding was not orchestrated by a Baratheon) or by perhaps Stannis?

I also notice that the queen is introduced to us as a Lannister, not a Baratheon. That seems important...as clearly while she is married to Robert, she is still a Lion at heart.

Also, we are given the clues that Dany is the real dragon by the way she takes to the hot water which she doesn't seem to mind at all. And yet, in the description of the Targaryn line, it mentions that they are often inbred, not mixing with others in the Royal Line. This leads me to two distinct thoughts:

1--Kahl Drogo's son may not have survived due to the lack of Dragon's blood in Drogo, and not just from the Sorcery (they did, after all, kill the horse). With such a premium on bloodline within the family of Dragons, that may be important. Though maybe not. But if so then...

2--Jon's wolf was the runt, but it was also white (the same silverish hair color as the Targaryn family had), which seems also to be a hint at his heratige as a Targaryn bunny slipper to a Stark mom...

Granted, the Antler in the Wolf may just be the arrival of Robert and the death of Ned. But as Yar is making me really wonder what is going on, then there could be more than meets the eye in this omen.

Also, since it is a Dance of Fire and Ice, then Jon would be an excellent choice of final King of the Andals, as his mom (Ned's Sister) was from the King of the North line and his Dad was a Dragon; Dany is Dragon King, and (should they marry) give birth to a child, that boy would have two king's lineage, and be both Fire and Ice.

Thoughts?

[DoctorGamgee]

I keep discovering things in this re-read. One of which is the Story that Nan tells about the Others. The cold things were creeping south and killing everything. But some women had crossed the sea and escaped them. This is exactly what happened to Dany. Curiouser and curiouser. I also had forgotten about the search for the people who had magic (the trees people?) and also the stories from the east, where sorcerers did magic which is reminiscent of the things that the Red priestess does, which breaks my thoughts into wondering if she is indeed a priestess of the Red God, or just another power hungry meddler looking for an easy power grab.

[yaralindi]

Imagine what it must be like for Martin. He knows a lot more than what he's put into the books and some of it still hasn't come together into a cogent story. As a writer I can tell you that sometimes the characters and events of a story just don't go as you think they should when you're blocking it out. They really do have a mind of their own. How I would have loved to have been a fly on the wall when Martin was writing about Joffrey ordering Ned's head lopped off.

"No! That can't be right. I needed Ned in the next book."

Furious writing ensues as he tries to "fix" it.

"Oh, for heaven's sake. That's even worse. None of the characters are acting normally now."

More furious writing ensues as he tries to "fix" the previous "fixes".

"Yuck! This just gets worse and worse. Now Joffrey is lopping Varys' head off! I need him in book 5 and 6. Okay, okay, Joffrey. Lop Ned's head off!"